Monthly Archives: February 2009

What happens when they stop loaning to us?

Asian investors won’t buy debt and mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac until they carry explicit U.S. guarantees, similar to those given on bonds issued by Bank of America Corp. or Citigroup Inc.

The risks are too great without a pledge that the U.S. will repay the debt no matter what, according to Hideo Shimomura, chief fund investor in Tokyo for Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., and other bondholders and analysts in Japan, China and South Korea interviewed by Bloomberg. Overseas resistance may hamper U.S. efforts to hold down home-loan rates and shore up the nation’s largest mortgage-finance companies.

Even after President Barack Obama vowed on Feb. 18 to sink as much as $400 billion of capital into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, double the original commitment, “there is still a concern that there is no guarantee” from the government, said Shimomura, who oversees $4 billion in non-yen bonds for the arm of Japan’s largest bank.

“Looking at the risk, they’re not so attractive,” he said. “We need a guarantee before we’ll buy.”

Foreign investors sold $170 billion of agency debt and securities in the second half of 2008, the largest amount since the Treasury began tracking sales in 1977, according to the most recent data. Asians, the biggest non-U.S. block of owners in the category, unloaded $70 billion worth from July through December, after scooping up $55 billion in the second quarter and being net buyers during much of the last decade.

via Bloomberg.com: Exclusive.

Yet more Biblical vindication of Leithart’s “Deliverdict”

John Barach writes:

“I’ve been working on Psalm 5 and happened to read Van Gemeren’s treatment of it in the Expositor’s Bible Commentary today.  In connection with verse 10 (’Declare them guilty’), Van Gemeren writes:

“‘… the psalmist prays for their demise.  The declaration of their ‘guilt’ also signifies the judgment of destruction.  The phrase ‘declare them guilty’ (ha’asimem, ‘you destroy them,’ Dahood, Psalms, 1:35-36) calls on the Lord both to declare a guilty verdict and to judge them with an appropriate sentence (cf. Ps 34:21-22; Isa 24:6; Hos 5:14; 10:2)’ (90). . .

“The word in question is the opposite of the word ‘justify’ or ‘vindicate.’  So what VG is saying here is that the condemnation, which is a declaration that these people are guilty, is not just a declaration but also an act.  To declare them guilty is to destroy them.  He as much as says that the form the guilty verdict takes is precisely the destruction of the enemy.  He doesn’t, however, develop a catchy phrase to describe this, nor does he theologize on the basis of it.  And besides, ‘destrucverdict’ doesn’t work at all.

“But isn’t he arguing, in the case of condemnation = destruction, for the flipside of what you’re arguing for in your ‘deliverdict’?”

To which my answer is: Yes.

via Peter J. Leithart » Blog Archive » Deliverdict.

An explanation as to why we’re in a mess

The fundamental problem is that everything got levered up to the gills during the bubble years.  Now all these “upside down” assets are a huge millstone around everyone’s neck – a problem from which we cannot realistically escape by any means other than realizing the losses.

Why not?  Because for nearly 20 years one of the fundamental requirements for sound lending – that is, the sharing of risk by the borrower and provision of a buffer against asset value declines (this is commonly known as a “down payment”) was systematically removed from our financial system across allasset classes.

See, assets do not always rise in price.  It doesn’t matter whether the asset is a stock, a bond, a piece of real estate or anything else. This is especially true when one “pumps” asset prices through the provision of nearly-unlimited credit without regard for ability to pay.

The government has, for nearly two years now, been concerned about “stabilizing housing prices.”  This is not only wrong-headed it is dangerous; there has been several trillion dollars in residential real estate “value” wiped out and there is more to come; in order to “stop it” you’d have to replace the money somehow. Then you’d get to do it again with commercial real estate, and again with credit cards, and……

This goal is not possible to achieve, but admitting the truth means admitting that a lot of our financial institutions that “ate their own cooking” are in fact bankrupt, and that just won’t do.  Never mind that some darned inconvenient questions might get asked about Washington DC’s role as “enabler in chief” for all the fraud of the last couple of decades – and perhaps more than a bit of personal complicity. 

I understand that at least a couple of sitting Senators might be able to provide tips on vacations in Antigua (Stanford Financial), as just one example of the outrageous “sleeping with thy sister” campaign that lay at the root of the faux prosperity of the last decade.  Senator Bill Nelson is reported to have received nearly $46,000 in campaign bribes, er, “donations”, along with Senator Pete Sessions of Texas ($41,375).  Even more outrageous is the fact that Stanford apparently gave $800,000 (!) to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee during the year that Senator Nelson was vice-chairman – 2002, specifically.

What’s important about 2002?  It was a year in which Stanford was lobbying furiously against anti-fraud legislation for the securities industry. 

How’d that turn out?

The bill was killed in Senate committee.

The best government money can buy, compliments of Senators Nelson and others. 

via Foreclosure Prevention? BS! More Fraud Coverup! – The Market Ticker.

Not sure this is the only problem.  I’d tend to see the root cause as the easy money policies of the Fed enforcing below market interest rates.  That new money then gets into the system and there were other problems created to adjust to that “pressure.”

Still, “perfect storm” seems to have developed from additional factors, including Banana-Republic collusion between “public” and “private” sector.  I use quotation marks around the virtually meaningless words.  We should just refer to the Ruling Sector, or the Parasite Sector.  It’s the Wall-Street-WashingtonDC nexus.

logos redux :: Keynesian crack for political coke-addicts :: February :: 2009

You’re a politician. Better yet, you’re the president of the United States, at the height of centralized government power in this country. You take office at the beginning of what is seen as a new era. Books have been written about you, and titles bestowed upon you, such as “Child of Promise,” or “Hope” of America. You have the willingness of the masses behind you.

Where do you turn for your ideas on economic policy?

Answer: You turn to the economist who unabashedly validates the massive expansion of your own power, who thinks that elite intellectuals like you are the only ones who deserve the power to run the world’s greatest political and economic nation: John Maynard Keynes.

Read the rest: logos redux :: Keynesian crack for political coke-addicts :: February :: 2009.

Lew Rockwell on “Left In Power”

After all the ghastly statism of the Bush years, you might think that the Left would back off from using power to achieve its aims. Instead, they have learned nothing. The Left has been lying in wait for its chance. As the Obama people entered the White House, it was as if they found a closet labeled “failed ideas of the past.” They opened it and the contents spilled everywhere. They started grabbing things and putting them in the regulatory books and in legislation.

What an amazing pile of junky, worn-out, bogus policy ideas Equal pay for equal work. Infrastructure spending. More money to the public schools. Socialized medicine. Rock-bottom interest rates. Welfare Every wish granted by government. Down with business. Down with business failures. Curbs on fat-cat pay. Down with Wall Street. Turn on the money spigots. Expropriate the expropriators. Subsidies for every lifestyle that flies in the face of bourgeois prejudice.

Thus are we again reminded of what a profound threat the Left represents to liberty. Its been more than a decade now since weve seen this at work, and probably longer really. Clinton was a pain, but he was smart enough not to take his reigning ideological framework too seriously. He actually showed some deference to reality from time to time.

The Obamaites are different. They are woefully ignorant of economics. They seem to actually believe all that socialist claptrap that has provided an excuse for innumerable foreign dictators: the idea that government is the source of wealth and can make anything happen with the push of a button.

via The Left in Power – Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. – Mises Institute .

Why Obama is smart not to appoint a “czar”

The Obama administration has abandoned the idea of naming a “car czar” to help oversee the U.S. auto industry’s restructuring, instead creating an inter-agency task force to deal with the issue, according to senior administration officials.

via Obama Backs Off ‘Car Czar’ to Oversee Detroit – WSJ.com.

The illusion here is that government agents have the power to second guess the auto business to make it better.  The fact is that most of the reason the car companies can’t and won’t be financially sound is due to regulations driven by political interest (unions, green inefficiency, etc).  Government oversight will only be worse because the only thing that has changed is that there is now more government oversight than there was before.

In every other way, the government has no advantage over the private sector.  It doesn’t have any special knowledge about the economy, consumer preferences, etc, that are not available to business owners and stockholders.

So what is the key to government success?  The only possible way to “improve” the companies is to ruthlessly force and subsidize an agenda and use the full force of government propaganda to ensure a specific agenda is followed, that it is reported as a wise agenda, and as long as possible it is reported as a successful agenda.

This won’t come from a committee.  It requires a powerful and usually charismatic leader.  Hayek has explained why and I won’t repeat the argument here.

That’s why Obama is smart to select a committee.  Any one person would be a possible rival.  He’s already having conflicts with others getting media coverage.  Instead, he can play the part himself with a group of “advisors” establishing his role as “the decider” (as another President described the role).

need-leader

Starving artists of yesteryear

Before the invention of recording devices, there were no professional musicians. Until they had a way to get recordings made and distributed via a label, there simply were no professional musicians. And the only way there can be professional musicians in the future is if the technological development, that led to recordings being made, stops from that point on.

Right?